Iran loads 4.6M barrels of oil despite US blockade

Iran has loaded 4.6 million barrels of oil despite a US blockade, and the market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market has halved its odds over the past day. Daily USDC volume in the market is $2,513, and it takes just $695 to move the price 5 percentage points, making this a thin market where small orders can cause noticeable shifts. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike.

Why it matters

Iran’s ability to export oil through the blockade points to a less constrained supply picture than traders had priced in. If the blockade cannot prevent 4.6 million barrels from loading, the case for a near-term supply shock weakens considerably. Related markets, such as those predicting WTI Crude Oil prices reaching $160 in April, reflect similarly diminished expectations, though exact odds aren’t currently available.

What to watch

At 1.1% YES, a YES share pays $1 if crude oil reaches an all-time high by April 30. For that bet to make sense, traders would need to foresee a dramatic shift in geopolitical tensions within six days. Announcements from OPEC+ or changes in US-Iran relations could alter market expectations quickly, especially given how thin this market is.

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